Craigslist: Will a gun keep you from being robbed?

I was reading a discussion thread earlier this morning about a serial robber meeting victims over Craigslist.  Basically the scumbag would make deals with cash paying victims, meet them in a public place and then rob them at gunpoint, even in crowded areas.  Of course in one particular forum there was no shortage of dialog around how an armed victim would have fared better or how this tough guy or that tough guy would have shot the robber dead, etc.  You know the type…keyboard commandos, the kind of guys who envision themselves doing a ninja spin kick knocking the hapless robbers gun from his hand while the hero (himself) simultaneously draws a 6 inch barreled .44 magnum and “blows a man’s head clean off” ala Dirty Harry.  Of course this crap always works out well in the movies but let’s put our critical thinking caps on for a minute and analyze the types of situations like this as they are in the real world.  We’ll look at some potential choices available to the victims and try to answer the question; did the victims really have a chance?

For those of you who may not be in the know on exactly what Craigslist is, it is basically a free online service that works as a community bulletin board and classifieds section (like what you’ll find in a newspaper).  The plus is of course you can find some great deals, sell unwanted stuff or otherwise meet people you may have never met before.  For example I started a band once from people I met through Craigslist.  But like any service that connects people, there are those scum of the earth types who will exploit the service to rob and or otherwise victimize others.  Like the old saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure which is definitely the case in situations like this.

I have put more than a little thought into this particular blog topic since I have done probably over a hundred deals through Craigslist and I happen to be the distrusting sort by nature.  I have several risk mitigation techniques I use but just like in riding a motorcycle, there will always be an inherent level of risk no matter how careful or prepared you are.  But first, let’s analyze the armed robbery risks since this is generally how a robbery goes down these days.

The victim looks on Craigslist and sees an item for sale at an unbelievable price.  He contacts the email of the seller who then agrees to meet him in a public place.  The victim shows up with cash in hand, ready to buy his new gizmo when SURPRISE, he gets a handgun thrust into his gut and is told “your money or your life” (or whatever the heck dirt bags say in situations like this).  So let’s look at the facts and likely circumstances as they are in real life.

1.)    The robber and has the element of surprise in his favor.  He probably planned this very scenario to the letter and likely has had experience doing this before whereas this may be the victim’s first time in a life threatening situation.  Confrontation is the robber’s comfort zone.

2.)    The victim will likely experience an adrenal reaction, shutting down various cognitive portions of the brain sending his physiology into “fight or flight” mode whereby only the more animalistic and primitive functions exist.  Things like dexterity and fine motor skills will deteriorate and the victim will likely experience audio and visual exclusion, also known as “tunnel vision” fixating on the perpetrator.  This will trigger a strong psychological reaction with a bias towards survival at all cost and the victim will comply if for no other reason than the shock factor alone.

3.)    Statistics show that robbers like company, so more than likely there will be more than one perpetrator and our victim will be outnumbered.

4.)    The robber will have what is commonly referred to as “the drop” on the suspect, meaning his weapon (likely a gun) will already be deployed and ready to use before the victim even senses the danger. 

5.)    More than likely the environment will be either unfamiliar or only vaguely familiar to the victim.  Who do they call to for help?  Where do they run to?  Etc.

6.)    More than likely the victim is unarmed.

(you can't out draw a pointed weapon no matter how fast you are)

Now given the above circumstances the victim has virtually no chance.  At the point the gun is drawn it’s game over for the victim and they have to do whatever is asked of them or run a high risk of either death or serious bodily injury.  But let’s take #6 from the above list and arm our victim.  In fact, let’s just get stupid and say our victim is carrying a .500 S&W Magnum, the most powerful production handgun on the planet and our victim is a card carrying expert in the gun’s use.  Let’s also assume that our victim has had extensive practice in drawing and firing a weapon, which although it looks easy on television is much more difficult than one might suspect especially when those fine motor skills mentioned above are absent.  The victim will still likely be outnumbered, facing a drawn gun with limited brain and physical function and likely to be in a somewhat unfamiliar environment.  What are the alternatives and probable outcomes?

1.)    The victim loses their money and the gun goes undetected.  In shock the victim does nothing and the robbers leave as if the victim were never armed.

2.)    The victim could comply and lose his money and also the gun.

3.)    The victim is robbed of money, the gun somehow goes undetected and the victim then proceeds to shoot the robber in the back (or when they are distracted), which in Texas at night is perfectly legal (and in my opinion a reasonable response).  This situation could happen if the robber is in a rush and is unused to armed victims. The robber might also be complacent because the victim will seem as compliant as his other victims.

4.)    The victim could go for it and draw his gun attempting to shoot the bad guy before the bad guy or guys can shoot him.  The likely result is the victim will be gunned down since he needs to draw to fire whereby the bad guy only needs to pull the trigger.  So unless the victim is the Cisco Kid, out drawing a pointed weapon is pretty much impossible.

5.)    The robber decides to shoot and kill the victim even though the victim has complied.  It does happen even though statistically this is unlikely. 

Given the above three choices only choices 1 and 2 have a reasonable expectation of survival.  Scenario 3 is a tossup, shoot one robber in the back and the other one shoots the victim, or worse both of them shoot the victim.  Unlike in the movies, people do not fly through the air, instantly dead from one gunshot and should the victim happen to hit them the robbers are more than likely still in the fight.  Scenario 4 is still likely to result in death or serious injury by attempting to outgun numerous armed assailants who already have drawn weapons and who are ready to fight.  So again, even if the victim is armed scenario 1 might be the preferred outcome.

So it almost sounds like there’s nothing you could do right?  Wrong.  In executive protection circles there is a line of thought which in a nutshell is, if you have to use your weapon to get out of trouble, you’ve already failed.  This is true in these kinds of robberies too.  So let’s think about some risk mitigation strategies.

1.)    If the deal is too good to be true, it probably is.  Yep, sorry but a $1,500 Harley Davidson Street Glide is either stolen, broken or bait.  Look elsewhere and use common sense.  The best deals are the ones that are fair for both parties involved.  If you remember this, you’ll likely never have to worry about a robbery.

2.)    Email is the preferred method of communication on Craigslist but always talk to the other person on the phone to work out the details.  Then follow them up with an email.  This does several things. 

a.      First you get a more accurate description of the item you are buying from the person before you see it in person. 

b.      Second you now have a phone number to associate with the seller. 

c.       Third, while on the phone do what I call the “interview”.  Be able to answer these questions, what kind of car will he be driving, make, model and color so you know how to recognize him.  Know where you are meeting, when you are meeting, the seller’s name and a cell phone number.  I know you’ll want to know who all is coming too but if you ask that you might scare the seller off.  After all if they asked you how many people you were bringing with you, wouldn’t it concern you?  So be reasonable and assume someone will come with him.  Get input from your “sixth sense” meaning, you can answer questions like, does the guy seem evasive, in a hurry, overly anxious, stressed or even confrontational?  Is he unable to answer questions that he should be able to if they had the item in hand?  (For example can they provide the serial number or vin number of the item you are going to buy?)  Basically try to get a feel for someone after spending a few minutes on the phone with him.  If something seems wrong assume that it is and pass on the deal.

3.)    Work out a meeting place that is well lit, visible to the public, that has multiple ingress and egress points and if possible that you are familiar with. Make sure that if the seller shows up with a pack of buddies you can simply drive off.  If you are not familiar with the area, arrive early and scout it out, familiarizing yourself with the area (see below).  If the place is dark, concealed or otherwise undesirable, call the seller and change the location explaining why and be truthful, if the seller is legit this should be no problem even if a minor inconvenience.  Remember anything that protects you also protects them.  If the seller contacts you changing the location be on alert, if you arrive there and it’s not as described keep driving.  Use common sense; know that an abandoned warehouse is not a good idea.  Also don’t expect the seller to pack up a 300 pound entertainment center and meet you at a local Chevron station…remember common sense.

4.)    Arrive early enough to observe the area first.  Even 30 minutes early is better than nothing but sometimes an hour is best if you’ve had to travel far and are in completely alien territory.  Look for things like other cars with people sitting in them doing nothing other than watching people.  (could be a bad sign)  Are there people loitering around your meeting spot acting suspicious, patting their pocket, looking around for no reason or otherwise just giving you a bad vibe?  Change location.  Just people watch for a while and get a feel for the environment.

5.)    When the seller arrives wave and smile.  Do they wave and smile back?  If so that’s a good sign, if they do not or otherwise avoid eye contact and scan the area that’s a sign to proceed with caution.  Read body language.

6.)    Next take note of the number of people in his car.    It’s not unusual to see a girlfriend, spouse or sometimes even son or daughter.  Most of the time only the seller gets out of the car for the initial hello and handshake.  If two or three twenty something males exit at the same time and begin approaching your vehicle as you are getting out, proceed with extreme caution, especially if one of them is not carrying the item you are attempting to buy.  Be on alert and feel free to “profile” all you want, you are not the police and nobody is backing you up so if you get a couple of tough looking hood rats walking your way who are supposedly selling a 1960’s era collectible electric guitar that’s not a good sign.  If you get a bad vibe act accordingly.  Read body language, can you see their hands?  Are they looking at you or looking around to see who else is looking?  Are they smiling and talkative or short and evasive?  Are they overdressed for the weather (hoodies in summertime, etc)?  Can you see their faces plainly? 

7.)    Also try to picture where they are keeping the item to be sold…is something missing?  For example if they are selling a motorcycle, did he arrive in an SUV without the motorcycle?  That’s a bad sign, proceed with extreme caution.

8.)    Try to park at least a car length away from the seller.  This way if they have to walk towards you to attack you they are likely to show a “tell” before the attack.  Furtive movements, patting a weapon, looking around the area but not at you, etc.

9.)    When you get out of the car start talking immediately, engage them in conversation, do not have the money visible, be polite and smile a lot.  They should be talking back to you, hopefully smiling as well.  Extend your hand to shake theirs a few steps before you reach them, this causes an instinctual reaction in other people to extend theirs or prepare to shake your hand.  Believe it or not it’s an old cop trick used to get people to remove their hands from their pockets and since the more than 2/3rds of the population is right handed, puts a “gun hand” in plain sight.  Although you’re not there to make a new buddy you should act almost as if you are.  Remember, bad guys who are up to no good have something other than a “deal” on their minds and are likely under a lot of stress at the point just before a robbery.  If they are sweating, acting nervous, stressed or evasive you should be aware of this.  These are indicators that something is not right.

10.)                        Take a friend if at all possible.  Your friend should stay in the car or beside it until the initial “hello how are you” is done.  This creates separation of targets if they decide to try and rob you since one of you is out of the car and the other is in or next to the car.  This leaves would be robbers vulnerable since someone inside the car may be armed, have ready access to cover, may be an undercover or off duty cop, etc.  It creates uncertainty and bad guys like to be certain they will win before committing.  If there’s a chance you might fight back, most just don’t bother.  Oh, and leave the money in the car with your buddy until you see the merchandise. 

(offering a handshake results in a programmed response allowing you to see the gun hand)

Okay now some of you might be thinking “okay but what if I do all that and everything goes wrong?”  If you did all of the above and things still go to crap you likely messed up somewhere.  You have already “lost” in the sense that you did not successfully prevent the fight by denying a target to your enemy ala Sun Szu by removing the opportunity.  However if a fight is brought to you there are some things you can do to better your chances of coming through the mess in one piece.

Every fight, whether it involves fists, guns or just words is an entirely unique circumstance that fluidly changes.  No two are alike so it’s best to develop healthy habits before hand, like going to the range and actually spending time shooting as if you were in a fight.  Practice drawing a weapon, practice sight alignment, create muscle memory, etc.  That said I’m guilty of not putting in my fair share of work but there are tactics anyone, warrior or poet, may use to ensure they get out of this mess alive and intact and that is by creating distance, fighting back, finding cover, buying time and denying a target to your enemy (again). 

Believe it or not, most police gunfights occur (80%) in low light and at distances under 10 feet, average rounds fired are 10 and average hits are 2.  Unlike you in this Craigslist situation, police do not get to pick the environment where they may encounter danger; this is why I stress a well lit area.  Second most gunfights occur at conversational distances, this is likely to be true in an attempted robbery scenario as well and as such when in doubt, distance is your friend.  Third, the 20% accuracy rate of shots fired should clearly demonstrate the effects of adrenaline on one’s ability to shoot straight.  Remember your average police officer likely trains more than your average citizen with their weapon so if they’re hitting 2 out of 10, what do you think your accuracy rate is likely to be?  This is why muscle memory is important but I digress, I am writing this post assuming you shoot maybe once to twice a year tops.  So knowing this, if the world turns brown and you have to pull a weapon to defend yourself do the following:

1.)    Back up or side step or run if you can, just create as much distance as possible between you and the bad guy.  The only thing harder than shooting a target under pressure is if that target is moving away rapidly.

2.)    Shoot as you move.  The only thing harder than shooting a target that’s moving away rapidly is shooting at that target while it shoots back at you.  Even if you miss try to force the sucker to take cover or at the very least flinch.  Causing his aim to veer an inch or two from the firing line may equal being off target several feet at the target line.  A good rule of thumb is the closer you are the more rapid your rate of fire should be (assuming a high capacity pistol) with slower more deliberate aimed shots as you move away.  Always remember to shoot center mass (meaning aim at the breadbasket).  A hit to the gut is better than a miss to the head.  Also remember, you can never miss fast enough to win.

3.)    Take cover as soon as possible.  Cover equals anything that will stop a bullet.  When you get it, plant yourself there and buy time, don’t fire off all your rounds.

4.)    Unless you’re hit, time is on your side not his, so once you have cover wait.  Cover the area where you last saw the bad guy with your gun.  If he runs let him run, you should be focused exclusively on removing the danger from the situation, not “winning”.  It’s better to be a live witness than a dead hero.

5.)    If you have more than one assailant shooting at you try to hit the nearest one first.  If distances are equal take one shot per and don’t let either settle for an accurate shot.  Again back up or run as you do this to create distance.  If you do find cover but can identify a way to flee the scene without compromising cover, run like a scalded rabbit.  Two shooters could easily outflank one.

(read the body language of an attack in progress)

Of course there have been dozens of books written on handgun combat and shooting scenarios so I will not cover or rehash everything they do other than the steps offered above.  The thing is I am not paid to shoot down bad guys and if I were ever attacked like this, my sole responsibility will be to get away from the danger as quickly and effectively as possible. I hope the above steps will do that should I ever be faced with this type of situation but as I said before, an ounce of prevention…